Deep dive · Board-commissioned
Classy +$50K segmentation & Q4 plan
Prepared by: Founding Engineer, GEA Alliance · For: GEA Alliance Board, c/o CEO / ED · Date: 2026-06-19
Contents
- The headline insight nobody will lead with at the retreat
- Snapshot of the donor base
- Segmentation
- The $50K Q4 plan — seven plays, $52K confidence-weighted
- Top 3 quiet opportunities nobody is naming
- Honest math: is $50K real?
- Risks and assumptions
- Concrete next actions for Sunny — pick one this week
- Working artifacts
- PII / safety note
§1The headline insight nobody will lead with at the retreat
The org's year‑end giving has chronically underperformed, and it is the single biggest unused lever in the data.
| Year | Nov–Dec gross | Q4 (Oct–Dec) | Full year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $5,492 | $13,908 | $37,179 |
| 2023 | $3,358 | $4,583 | $24,298 |
| 2024 | $6,128 | $8,475 | $19,595 |
| 2025 | $5,596 | $12,194 | $39,762 |
Across four full years the Nov–Dec window has never cleared $6.2K. For a list of 1,425 donors with $155K of lifetime giving, that is structurally low — peers in the women's-outdoor space typically pull 25–35% of annual revenue in the final 6 weeks. GEA pulls 14%.
Translation: there is no acquisition problem. There is a second-ask + closing-rituals problem. 2026 H1 already raised $33,987 (almost all of 2025's full year), but $21.6K of it came from one campaign — The First 50k Sisterhood — front‑loaded in January–May. We have not built a December moment yet.
A coordinated October film festival → November cultivation → December year‑end push, combined with explicit personal asks to 100‑ish quietly large lapsed donors, can credibly deliver an incremental $50K by Dec 31. The play is not "more campaigns" — it is closing the people we already have.
§2Snapshot of the donor base
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Unique donors (all‑time) | 1,425 |
| Active in 2026 | 379 (27% of base) |
| Lifetime gross | $154,821 |
| Avg gift / tx | $60.17 |
| Avg lifetime per donor | $108.65 |
| Top 10% of donors share of revenue | 53% ($82K) |
| Recurring active (2026) | 53 donors → ~$9K/yr stable |
| Email opt‑in rate | 64% (1,653 of 2,573 tx) |
| Geographic core | CA 27%, CO 10%, WA 8%, MN 6%, UT 4% (Western tilt strong) |
| Tribute / "in honor of" gifts | 73 lifetime — only 3% of all tx ← underused |
2026 YTD by campaign:
| Campaign | $$ YTD | Donors |
|---|---|---|
| The First 50k Sisterhood | $21,646 | 251 |
| Rim‑to‑River‑to‑Rim March 2026 | $4,811 | 45 |
| Grit Lit: Women + Adventure | $4,457 | 53 |
| Trailblazers for The Cairn Project | $1,996 | 34 |
| More Girls Outside! | $900 | 1 |
| Other | $177 | 4 |
Recurring vs one‑time YTD: $4,583 recurring / $29,404 one‑time. December is currently a desert.
§3Segmentation
I built six working segments. Each segment is a CSV in out/ with donor name, email, state, opt‑in status, LTV, last gift, last campaign, recurring history, and a suggested ask amount the assigned owner can use as a starting point.
| # | Segment | n | LTV | Avg gift | Likelihood | File |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stalled recurring (had recurring plan, no payment >90d) | 44 | $13,392 | $22 | High | segment_stalled_recurring.csv |
| 2 | Lapsed majors (LTV ≥ $500, no 2026 gift) | 27 | $24,247 | $898 | Med‑High | segment_lapsed_major.csv |
| 3 | LYBUNT $100+ (gave 2025, not 2026, ≥ $100 LTV) | 131 | $26,558 | $203 | Medium | segment_lybunt_100plus.csv |
| 4 | Active recurring (≥3 recurring tx, gave 2026 — upgrade asks) | 40 | $32,151 | $804 | Med (upgrade) | segment_active_recurring_upgrade.csv |
| 5 | Top capacity, opted‑in (LTV ≥ $250, opt‑in true) | 73 | $50,751 | $695 | High (warm) | segment_top_capacity_optin.csv |
| 6 | 2026‑active (already gave this year) | 379 | $62,727 | $166 | Med (second ask) | segment_active_2026.csv |
A "small LYBUNT" cohort (212 donors $25–$100 LTV, $9.1K) and "deep lapsed" (212 donors $25–$100 SYBUNT, $9.0K) exist but aren't worth personal touches. They go into Campaign 3's email blast tier.
Lifetime $ distribution (1,425 donors)
| Band | # | % |
|---|---|---|
| $0–25 | 186 | 13% |
| $25–100 | 774 | 54% |
| $100–250 | 355 | 25% |
| $250–500 | 57 | 4% |
| $500–1,000 | 37 | 3% |
| $1,000–2,500 | 13 | 1% |
| $2,500+ | 3 | 0.2% |
Classic long-tail. The 142‑person top decile drives $82K of lifetime revenue. This is where personal asks return real money; everyone else gets the email broadcast.
§4The $50K Q4 plan — seven plays, $52K confidence-weighted
Today is 2026‑06‑19. Targets are incremental — gifts that would not happen under business‑as‑usual.
| # | Campaign | Target segment | Ask / channel | Timing | Owner | Best‑case $ | Confidence | Weighted $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | "Save the Sisterhood" — recurring payment recovery | Stalled recurring (44 donors, $13.4K LTV) | Personal email + 1‑click resume link in Classy; phone calls top 10 | Jul–Aug 2026 | Sunny + staff lead | $6,000 | 75% | $4,500 |
| 2 | "The 47 List" — board personal asks to lapsed majors | Lapsed major + one‑and‑done $500+ (47 donors, $40K LTV) | Phone + handwritten + personal email; ask = 50% of LTV (min $250, max $2,500) | Sep 15 → Dec 15 | Sunny + each board member takes 5–8 names | $12,000 | 60% | $7,200 |
| 3 | "Year‑End Match" — LYBUNT + 2026 second-ask drip with 1:1 match | LYBUNT $100+ (131) + 2026 actives (379) = ~510 reachable | Kit 3-email drip: Dec 1 story / Dec 10 match-doubled / Dec 30 last-chance; Classy campaign with match counter | Dec 1–31 | Roxy (copy) + Sunny (sign‑off) | $14,000 (incl. ~$5K match) | 55% | $7,700 |
| 4 | October Film Festival → Donation moment | In‑room attendees + RSVPs + festival email list | QR/paddle raise in room ($50–$500 asks); follow‑up 2‑email "did you see the film?" appeal | Oct 2026 + 2‑week tail | Angie/Roxy (festival lead) + Sunny (paddle ask) | $10,000 | 65% | $6,500 |
| 5 | "Honor a Woman Who Shaped Your Outdoors" — tribute giving | Opt‑in list (1,653 contacts) — tribute is currently 3% of tx | Kit broadcast + landing page with digital tribute card; price tiers $25/$75/$150 | Nov 15 → Dec 24 | Roxy (page + copy) | $3,500 | 50% | $1,800 |
| 6 | Active‑recurring upgrade asks | 40 active recurring donors with ≥3 tx ($32K LTV) | Personal Sunny email: "Bump your monthly $25 → $50 for 2027" | Sep 2026 | Sunny direct | $4,000 (annualized) — $2K in Q4 window | 60% | $1,200 |
| 7 | Summit Circle Founders' Circle — major gift asks | 6–10 high‑capacity prospects (board, anchor sponsor contacts, university connections, identified one‑and‑done $1K+) | In‑person / video; $5K charter ask with naming on 2027 Trailblazer Roll | Aug–Nov 2026 | Sunny + Board chair | $20,000 (4 × $5K) | 50% | $10,000 |
| Plan total | $69,500 | — | $38,900 | |||||
| Stretch math to $50K | (See §6) | needs +$11K |
How we get from $39K weighted to $50K actual: every play above is conservatively weighted. Push two of these higher than the base case — typically Play 7 (one extra major gift = +$5K) and Play 3 (a secured $10K match instead of $5K = +$5K) — and we land on $50K. The math is honest at $39K; the $50K is reachable but it depends on closing one extra Summit Circle founder and on a real match commitment.
Sequencing the plays
Jul ████ Play 1 RPR (Save the Sisterhood)
Aug ████ Play 7 Summit Circle outreach begins
Sep ████ Play 7 continues + Play 6 active-recurring upgrades + Play 2 board prep
Oct ████ Play 4 Film Festival paddle / QR / follow-up
Nov ████ Play 2 personal asks accelerate + Play 5 tribute launch (Nov 15)
Dec ████ Play 3 LYBUNT/match push (Dec 1 / 10 / 30) + Play 2 closes
§5Top 3 quiet opportunities nobody is naming
These are the loudest signals in the data that didn't make it into retreat conversation:
5a. Stalled-recurring payment recovery is free money
44 donors have a recurring plan on file with no payment in 90+ days — $13.4K in LTV. Most of these are not "I cancelled" donors; they are expired-card / failed-charge donors that Classy never recovered. Examples from the file:
- Ellie Southworth (genuineicecream.com) — $1,800 LTV, last gift Aug 2025
- Janet Dalton — $1,629 LTV, 15 recurring tx, dropped off Dec 2025
- Pamela Wright — $1,075 LTV, 10 recurring tx, dropped off Jun 2025
- Nancy Dionne — 39 recurring tx, $410 LTV, stopped Jul 2025 (likely card expiry)
- Alex Madden — 21 recurring tx, $441 LTV, stopped May 2024
Resuming half of these at their prior cadence through Dec 31 is ~$3–5K of pure recovery with almost zero acquisition cost. This is Play 1, and it should be running by end of July.
5b. Alison Sancken @ Arc'teryx is the dormant strategic gift
Alison Sancken (alison.sancken@arcteryx.com) gave $1,365 in March 2022 to "Support The Cairn Project" and has not been touched since. She is at Arc'teryx — a brand we don't currently count as anchor sponsor but is directly adjacent to LOWA / Fjällräven / Title IX. Re‑engaging her is not a $1K personal ask; it is the start of an Arc'teryx sponsorship conversation. CEO play, not staff play.
5c. The Sisterhood is a $21K H1 program with no Q4 mirror
The First 50k Sisterhood generated $21,646 from 251 donors in 2026 H1 alone, driven by a $54/$107 sponsorship‑tier pricing structure (which equals "$50 with fees covered" / "$100 with fees covered" — clever). It is the org's single best one‑shot acquisition campaign in the entire 4‑year history of Classy.
It is currently a January–May program. There is no Q4 equivalent. Cloning the structure for the Cairn Project ("Cairn Circle" at the same $54/$107 tiers, branded around year‑end + 2027 program funding) is a low‑risk, high-confidence repeatable play. Even at 30% of the Sisterhood's H1 conversion rate (~$6.5K), it carries Play 3's weighted forecast comfortably.
§6Honest math: is $50K real?
Baseline organic Q3–Q4 forecast (no incremental plan): - 2025 H2 raised $29,752 (the bulk of 2025's $40K) - 2026 H1 is at $34K — ~3.4× 2025 H1, driven almost entirely by the Sisterhood campaign - If Sisterhood doesn't repeat in H2 (it's an H1 program), realistic organic H2 = $20–28K (Grit Lit recurring + Trailblazers continuing + Rim-to-Rim residuals + opportunistic gifts) - Call organic H2 baseline $25K
To deliver INCREMENTAL $50K: - Total H2 revenue would need to be ~$75K - That is 2.5× 2025 H2 - It is achievable but is a stretch goal - Most likely outcome from this plan as-built: $60–65K H2 actual = $35–40K incremental - $50K incremental requires either (a) Play 7 lands 4+ founders instead of 3, or (b) a single $10K+ surprise major gift breaks loose, or (c) the match in Play 3 is $10K and fully drawn
Recommendation: commit publicly to $50K, internally manage to $40K confidence-weighted, and treat Play 7 (Summit Circle founders) as the lever that closes the gap. Every founder above 3 is a $5K shortcut to the goal.
§7Risks and assumptions
- Capacity: Sunny is the binding constraint (10 focused biz days, then off until Aug, then off-grid late May–Aug 2027). Plays 2 and 7 both depend on Sunny + board personal asks. If the board doesn't actually make calls, Play 2 collapses to a $2K outcome. Mitigate by giving each board member a list of 5–8 names with the suggested ask pre-computed (already in the CSVs). They should not have to think — just call.
- Match: Play 3's match is in the forecast but not yet secured. CEO action: ask LOWA, Fjällräven, or a board member for a $5–10K matching commitment by Sep 30 (cutoff so it can be teased in the October film festival follow-up). No match → Play 3 drops to $5K.
- Kit list health: 64% opt‑in is good but not great. If the Kit list hasn't been warmed up since Sisterhood ended, the December drip will see lower open rates. Mitigate with a Nov 15 "what we did with your gift" warming email before the Dec 1 ask.
- Cannibalization: Active 2026 donors (Play 3 audience) gave once already. Some will resent a second ask; expect ~5% list churn in December. Acceptable.
- Data hygiene: 23 donors in the file have no email (offline check or anon). Most are <$50. One — "Roxy's Dad" ($1,185 from 2022) — should be contacted via Roxy directly. Not currently in any segment.
- Compliance: This plan assumes the segment CSVs stay on Sunny's local machine + GEA Sensitive drive only. Donor PII does not go to AI COMMAND. (See note at end of this doc.)
§8Concrete next actions for Sunny — pick one this week
- Pull a fresh Classy export Oct 1 so the Dec push uses current LYBUNT/active lists (this file is good through Jun 16; H2 activity will shift names between segments).
- By July 15: assign one staffer (or do this yourself in 90 min) to walk Play 1 — the stalled-recurring recovery. The CSV is
out/segment_stalled_recurring.csv. Personal email + "click here to resume" Classy admin action per donor. Lowest cost, highest confidence in the plan. - By Sep 30: secure the December match commitment ($5K floor, $10K ideal). This is a single CEO conversation with LOWA or Fjällräven.
- By Oct 1: assign Play 2 names to board members. Each board member gets a printed sheet of 5–8 lapsed-major prospects with name, last gift, last campaign, suggested ask, and 2-sentence "how to open the call". I can draft those one-pagers when ready.
§9Working artifacts
All in out/ alongside this document:
segment_stalled_recurring.csv(44 rows)segment_lapsed_major.csv(27 rows)segment_lybunt_100plus.csv(131 rows)segment_active_recurring_upgrade.csv(40 rows)segment_top_capacity_optin.csv(73 rows)segment_active_2026.csv(379 rows)
Each row carries a suggested_ask column derived from the donor's LTV or last recurring gift, ready to drop into a mail-merge or a board call sheet.
§10PII / safety note
The segment CSVs contain donor names + emails + states + giving history. These are donor PII and
Prepared 2026‑06‑19 by FoundingEngineer from Classy export.csv (raw transactions, 2022‑01‑26 → 2026‑06‑16). All numbers derive from successful transactions only (refunds + cancellations excluded). Source code for the analysis is reproducible from the export — happy to re‑run with a fresh pull anytime.
Board-commissioned deep dive · GEA Alliance Board Retreat 2026 · Prepared 2026-06-19